It's clear that Suella Braverman's former colleagues in the British Conservative Party had long believed she was living in a state of relative isolation, as if she had closed the doors and windows on herself, distancing herself from her political environment. Therefore, her exit from the historic British party may not be the most surprising event in its long history. However, the party leadership's belief that this split does not carry deep significance is a grave mistake, and perhaps even more dangerous than the previous inappropriate remarks about Braverman's mental health.
In reality, Braverman's departure from the party can be seen as the most significant split among all such cases the Conservative Party has witnessed, especially when we realize that the story did not begin with her recent announcement last week, but traces back to November 13, 2023—the day then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak fired her as Home Secretary. This decision was not entirely unexpected, as it had been prepared in advance. Despite her high standing within the Cabinet, Braverman became more outspoken in expressing her dissatisfaction with the Conservative government's deadlock on immigration.
In a direct manner, she presented the Prime Minister with two clear choices: either support her direction or fire her. Sunak resolved the matter by dismissing her, and the significance of this decision was heightened by the fact that on the very day he removed her from her post as Home Secretary, he appointed David Cameron as Foreign Secretary. Observers have differed on whether Rishi Sunak, known for his administrative efficiency but political weakness, intended to send a provocative political message through this move. However, a broad segment of voters who had voted to leave the European Union and then cast their ballots for the Conservative Party in hopes of "taking back control" received Braverman's firing and Cameron's appointment as a clear signal in that direction.
For these people, there was no longer any doubt that the traditional political elite still holds the reins of power, despite the UK's exit from the European Union. But where is the irrefutable proof that these developments have left a lasting impact? To answer that, we can turn to long-term polling data, particularly the levels of support the UK Reform Party was receiving. Before Braverman's dismissal from the government, the party, led by the far-right Nigel Farage, was getting between 6% and 7% of the vote—a notable figure, but not one that represented a radical shift in the British political landscape.
However, after November 13, 2023, a clear turning point emerged, marked by the beginning of a continuous rise for the Reform Party, which turned British politics on its head. One of the most prominent milestones in this trajectory was the party winning 14.3% of the vote in the 2024 general election, subsequently leading in subsequent polls by a significant margin. There is no doubt that Farage's return to the party's leadership played a pivotal role in this growing momentum, as did the rapid decline in the popularity of Keir Starmer's government. Nevertheless, the spark for this transformation was the Braverman affair.
Many may not agree with her policies, respect her ministerial performance, or approve of her sarcastic style towards activists reading conservative newspapers. However, it is fair to acknowledge at least one thing: when her patience ran out with a governing system she saw as incapable of effective response, she did not hide her displeasure nor pretend to feel otherwise. And while it may have taken her years to reach this position, millions of voters ultimately followed the same path.
If the Conservative Party has any hope of regaining its popularity, it must clearly demonstrate a deep understanding of the reasons that drove Braverman, and with her, a large number of voters, away from the party in the first place. It is strikingly ironic that on the very day Braverman officially announced her split from the party, moderate conservatives launched a new movement called "UK Prosperity," in an attempt to counter and reject populism. However, this effort does not seem sufficient in the eyes of traditional Conservatives. While they may not trust the Reform Party, they also believe in the necessity of not leaving any part of Britain behind or marginalized.
Source: "The Guardian"
After Braverman's dismissal, a clear turning point emerged, marked by the beginning of a continuous rise for the "Reform" Party, which turned British politics on its head.
If the "Conservative" Party has any hope of regaining its popularity, it must prove that it understands the reasons that drove Braverman, and with her, a large number of voters, away from the party.
