On Tuesday, the price of Brent crude for May delivery rose 4.71%, surpassing $81 at the close of the session on the London Futures Market, driven by supply fears amid the war between Israel and the United States against Iran. The North Sea crude, a benchmark for Europe, stood at $81.40 on Tuesday at the end of the day, an advance of $3.66 compared to Monday's close, when it ended at $77.74. Throughout Tuesday, Brent came close to $85 during the session (levels not seen since July 2024), but the initial momentum, mainly driven by investors' fears of possible supply disruptions from Iran due to the war started by the US and Israel against the Islamic republic, eased towards the end of the day. 'Black gold' rose by more than 13% in the early hours of Monday, in its first reaction to the offensive launched by the US and Israel against Iran, which in turn responded with bombings towards various targets of its Arab neighbors in the Persian Gulf region. Investors are today watching the evolution of the conflict, and in particular the halt of maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Tehran, a key step for world trade, including 20% of the maritime flow of oil. Although the closure of Hormuz has not been officially declared, it is 'de facto' closed, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard threatened yesterday to set fire to any vessel attempting to cross the strait. According to StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada, any suggestion that the flow through this bottleneck could be restricted 'is enough to unsettle commodity trading desks, and recent events have had precisely that effect'. US President Donald Trump predicted on Tuesday at a press conference at the White House that crude prices will fall once 'US activities in Iran' are over. Several analysts are speaking in the same vein, believing that the rise in oil 'could be temporary' while the war lasts, given that structurally, the market has enough supply for the expected demand. 'The market has a good supply and it is unlikely that Iran will suffer a serious and prolonged disruption, so it is unlikely that a full-blown oil crisis will occur,' said Oxford Economics' director of energy forecasts Bridget Payne on Tuesday.
